Asia FX Outlook: UST yields on a tear higher



USD/AXJ is set to open higher across the board and basically in break out territory after it leaves behind its tight ranges of the last 6 to 7 weeks. It is hard to pin down one particular driver rather there is a host of drivers.
Firstly the machinations in the Chinese currency market where the PBOC looks like it is engineering a satisfactory starting point in order to widen the trading band and the fallout from the NPC - lower growth, not going to help the property developers etc. Secondly US markets are in full bent on squeezing out QE type trades with US Treasury yields now scorching higher. This of course is now driving the US Dollar higher but some of this move was already in train (i.e. USD/JPY). Thirdly trades that did well during the European (read Greece) debt crisis are being unwound led by Gold and AUD/USD. There is of course some overlap between these drivers but all up we look like we are on the cusp of a big breakout to the topside in USD/AXJ. USD/SGD, USD/MYR looks as though they have already broken cleanly to the topside whilst USD/KRW is only a Won or two away now.    


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